Confidence Score
The Confidence Score (0--100) tells you how reliable an operator's Risk Score is. It doesn't measure the operator's quality --- it measures data quality. A high confidence score means we have enough information to make a reliable assessment. A low confidence score means you should interpret the risk score with caution.
Why Confidence Matters
New operators or those with limited on-chain activity have less data to analyze. Their risk scores may be based on few data points, subject to higher statistical uncertainty, or missing key metrics like volatility trends. The Confidence Score helps you account for this.
How It's Calculated
The Confidence Score is the sum of three factors, each measuring a different aspect of data quality:
Confidence Score = Tenure Factor + Data Sufficiency + Activity Recency
| Factor | Max Points | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|
| Tenure | 50 | How long the operator has been active |
| Data Sufficiency | 30 | Richness of delegation data |
| Activity Recency | 20 | Freshness of last on-chain activity |
Tenure Factor (up to 50 points)
Operators that have been active for at least 30 days receive the full 50 points. Those with less history receive proportionally fewer points.
| Operational Days | Points |
|---|---|
| 30 or more | 50 |
| 15 | 25 |
| 7 | 12 |
| 0 | 0 |
Data Sufficiency (up to 30 points)
More delegators means richer data for concentration analysis and other metrics.
| Delegator Count | Points |
|---|---|
| 10 or more | 30 |
| 2--9 | 20 |
| 0--1 | 10 |
Activity Recency (up to 20 points)
Recent on-chain activity means the data is current and the operator is actively participating.
| Days Since Last Activity | Points |
|---|---|
| 0--7 (this week) | 20 |
| 8--30 (this month) | 10 |
| 31+ (over a month ago) | 5 |
Interpreting the Score
| Confidence | Range | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| High | 80--100 | Risk score is well-supported by data |
| Moderate | 50--79 | Reasonable basis, but consider doing additional research |
| Low | 0--49 | Limited data --- interpret the risk score with caution |
Example
An operator with:
- 45 days operational --- Tenure Factor = 50
- 8 delegators --- Data Sufficiency = 20
- Last activity 5 days ago --- Activity Recency = 20
Confidence Score = 50 + 20 + 20 = 90
High confidence --- this operator's risk score is based on adequate data.
Other Data Quality Indicators
Beyond the Confidence Score, EigenWatch also tracks:
- Active status --- operators with no on-chain activity in 30+ days are marked as inactive
- Sufficient data flag --- operators need at least 30 operational days and 2+ delegators for the most reliable analysis
Using Confidence in Your Decisions
For important delegation decisions, look at both the Risk Score and the Confidence Score together. An operator with a Risk Score of 85 and a Confidence Score of 90 is a much clearer signal than one with a Risk Score of 85 but a Confidence Score of 35.
When confidence is low, the risk score defaults its missing components to 50 (neutral). The score isn't necessarily wrong --- there just isn't enough history to be sure.